Martin Geddes writes on Capitalism 2.0

Firstly the co-ordination problem used to be solved by centralised models because of the cost & complexity, and the physical requirement of "voice in the wire." Once it was packetised and externally standardised, the writing was on the wall. Martin alludes to this in his IMS "deconstruction" (more like demolition) at URL. His point that wired and wireless and FMC are irrelevant in a packet based application over IP (VoIP for short) confirms the declining significance of centralised command and control structures to co-ordinate telecommunications.

I once heard Communism described as Telecom with Tanks, what is growing in the new model is democracy (AKA commoditisation) and the lowering cost of entry is assisting the Henry Sumner Maine notion of "Status to Contract," that is, you don't need to be a Telco to do voice, or any other packet based application.

Martin also looks out of the apartment window and sees the roads, they are the infrastructure, the existence of collective provided bus services are just that, services, running competitively with other services.

Finally, the suggestion we need a new Adam Smith reminds me of Doc Searl's line about Adam meeting Karl.

Perhaps what happens when communication becomes cheap is that the scale of the solution declines from Nations to smaller quanta, rather as Jane Jacobs asserts its not "Wealth of Nations," but "Wealth of Cities," and now Yochai Benkler is in print with "Wealth of Networks." DRM? Yochai Benkler's book is on-line with the full cast of commons production tools.

(DRM is to IMS as the PSTN is to the legacy centralised distribution models, free to air broadcasting, shiny disks & cinemas. Already, if not in the end, those central gatekeeper and scarcity distribution networks are merely promotional vehicles for the real revenue which comes from the non-duplicable proprietary or tangible distribution. However as the scarcity of publishers, presses, frequencies, shops, shelf-space becomes irrelevant and the choices in the broader sphere grow, the aggregators/recommenders will swell in importance, or something...)

Perhaps the business plan could be proprietary operators pay. IE, cellular operators with the video dreams pay per stream delivered at a charge to their subscribers. Proportional perhaps to the volume charge of the operator...

UPDATE Tuesday, November 7th, 2006: YouTube In Talks To Open TheirTube Services Only For Verizon Customers

Ah, it is recognised that the assumption that the incumbent would be motivated by the risk of appearing before the regulator wasn't at all scary, however the new entrants are much more concerned. And the bilateral model has been shown weak. Who would have expected negotiation between an extraordinarily powerful incumbent and new entrants? You might as well expect success in competition between the All Blacks and a team of primary new entrants.

Open access to offers regulated... again, not surprising that this would be more successful than individual bilateral determinations.

And now to address the duopoly. Bears all the hallmarks Taylor addressed in the wireline broadband markets (who also noted that direct overseas investment in non-infrastructure activities will increase with better infrastructure. A case for collective investment in infrastructure?)

Encouragement to Telecom to co-operate with customers, regulator and industry.

Ensconced at home with a CafeNET GoWEEK card, I'm watching the stream from R2.

Very interesting watching the proprietary (as in single company, single platform, not the "proprietary" some ascribe to MP3 for instance (patented, but implemented extraordinarily widely) client struggle with the 2Mbs stream, a smart edge, but not smart enough to adjust to 1024Kbps out of 1536Kbps it reports available...

The morning session has been disrupted twice by late arrivals, but the agenda was:

The vision for telecommunications in New Zealand

8:45am Theresa Gattung, CEO, Telecom New Zealand

Pushed the patriotic buttons, acquiesced with willing to the regulatory plan announced by Government. Still tried the "cherry picking" smear on competitiors when we all know ADSL+ will not be initially deployed in the rural environment. Lots of talk about "customer control," which in fact equates to "self-provisioning" rather than choice of service provider. The wholesale charter (and TVNZ has shown how effect such documents are, even when applied with the power of the State) was mentioned often. Interesting that the AAPT experience with Telstra was mentioned as an inspiration, I would have AAPT write our regulations...

9:05am Russell Stanners, CEO, Vodafone New Zealand

Visionary, but I missed a lot of it, Russell followed Michael.

9:25am Michael Boggs, CFO, TelstraClear

Lots of news about how TCL plans to improve its customer service, drive its own network.

9:45am Minister Cunliffe

Late, so followed the panel discussion.

Thanks Theresa for displaying willing. Stocktake, process. "A thorough and robust process." Economic research from Economist, consultants and vendors... Customer's producers and content choosers. Global participation. (Could the Commissioner look any more grim?) Review of regulatory plans, government as customer, alternative infrastructure and spectrum availability.

Myth: Rural disadvantaged. No.
Myth: Regulatory creep. No more patching.

Pricing: "efficient costs"

When: "realistic expectations" Amendment introduced mid-year, potentially till 2007. "Full market effects may not be felt until 2007/8."

"Far too much, for far too little [] for far too long"

10:10am Panel Discussion — Theresa Gattung, Russell Stanners & Michael Boggs

First question to Paul Budde, who speaks later. The "investment" question arises, after the billions we plan to spend on roads, and the declining cost of infrastructure, ability of communities and small companies to enter the market is not referenced. Graeme rebuts the "dispersed population" canard and addresses the regional community entrants.

Privacy was asked about...

Might have been nice to have questioners identify themselves by name and affiliation.

How to drive uptake? Lots of talk about advertising, but price drops only obliquely referenced.

Malcolm Dick, Callplus: Re-iteration of will Telecom co-operate regarding the Callplus application to the Commissioner. NO COMMENT.

Paul Budde, again: Wireless broadband? Why is Theresa so confident of wireless, given its historic failure and predictions of 2012 before 4G.

Theresa: customers choosing it.. easier path however slow... "Not voice driving growth, its everything else
Russell: vendor failure to deliver kit, now its starting.
Graeme: Mobile to the individual, not the business/residential


In "vision" Theresa and Russell lead, Michael, in true telco fashion assumes what they do is the future of NZ, there was little in his address that went outside of TelstraClear's plans. Some assembly required. IT rather than Telco model (competition & customer choice of use and service provision vs single supplier with usage charges).