Just a quick time stamp while the Government and Telecom play chicken, though in this case Telecom is the chicken crossing the road and the Government is a thirty-eight wheel truck coming down the infrastructure highway, on my opinion of the outcome.

Two pieces of news:

1. "Analysts say Telecom's latest quarterly result shows just how dependent the company is on the profits of network arm Chorus, and how vulnerable it would be to competing fibre access networks built as a result of the ultrafast broadband plan."

2. "A string of local and international groups have expressed interest in partnering the Government in its $1.5 billion internet broadband roll-out. Communications and Information Technology Minister Steven Joyce said 38 groups had expressed an interest, and the Government was getting close to selecting private sector partners to build the infrastructure and get the roll-out under way."

So Telecom Group can wait till the UFB establishes competitive wholesale and retail markets, both within the UBF and against Telecom Group's Chorus/Wholesale/Retail monopsony, which should be bloody. Or it can co-operate.

Chorus can have a role building (but not owning) passive infrastructure for the Local Fibre Companies, being the local fibre company complying with the open access requirements, or being a shareholder, albeit a minority one in as many LFCs as it can.

Or it can stand staunch and sweat it out in truly sunset industry style.

If I were a shareholder, I know what I'd do.

Andrew Odlyzko's "Content is not King" finally reminded me that the critical difference in revenue is the change from broadcast (publication) to interaction. Not just interaction between a broadcaster and the audience (talk radio, letters to the editor) but a wholesale change from that dichotomy to everyone having the opportunity to be both or either. His example:

The primacy of connectivity over content explains phenomena that have baffled wireless industry observers, such as the enthusiastic embrace of SMS (Short Message System) and the tepid reception of WAP (Wireless Application Protocol). Combined with statistics showing low cell phone usage, this also suggests that the 3G systems that are about to be introduced will serve primarily to stimulate more voice usage, not to provide Internet access.

I disagree with the second conclusion, data connectivity will be an important part of the result.